Ukraine will be one of the largest telecom services market in the Central and Eastern Europe region, with estimated revenue of UAH 42.0bn ($1.9bn) in 2015. The revenue mix will change significantly, mostly thanks to the launch of 3G services on a large scale in 2015. Going forward, operators’ focus on 3G services and fixed network expansion and enhancement initiatives will further intensify the competition in the Ukrainian telecom market. The mobile data market will offer a considerable growth opportunity for mobile operators and operators’ focus on network expansion and quality enhancement will offer opportunities for vendors.
Key Findings
– The political and macroeconomic scenario is expected to remain challenging in Ukraine over the next few years, and this will cause slow telecom revenue growth through 2020. Pyramid Research forecasts service revenue to grow at a 0.1% CAGR in local currency from 2015 to 2020.
– Adoption of 3G technologies is projected to reach 43.7% of mobile subscriptions in 2020 aided by the recent 3G spectrum auction and increasing availability of compatible handsets. The government plans to introduce 4G by 2017, but a very slow LTE take-up is expected.
– Broadband penetration will reach 18.9% by 2020 compared with 14.3% in 2015. FTTH/B and xDSL will account for nearly 80% of net additions.
