NOVARTIS – SERELAXIN (RLX-030) in Acute Heart Failure – Unmet need would allow an approval, while extent of Mortality benefit would decide the extent of commercial potential

Date: 2015-07

Novartis reported positive outcome data from Phase 3 study (RELAX-AHF) exploring Serelaxin in Acute Decompensated Heart Failure patients. In the trial, Serelaxin demonstrated statistically significant mortality benefit. The primary outcome of dyspnoea improvement was significantly better when measured in one of the two measurement scale (Likert and VAS) employed in the study. Likert Scale captures initial improvement in dyspnoea (<24h) where as VAS is a continuous scale which allows measurement of incremental improvements in dyspnoea. We project a minimal peak sales of $600million for Serelaxin, and depending on the extent of mortality benefit, the compound can gross blockbuster sales.

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