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ASTRAZENECA : AZN: Omthera Acquisition – Valuations defensive, leaves room for upside

US$ 90

AstraZeneca today announced acquisition of Omthera Pharma for $260m in cash and $120m in form of contingent value rights. The acquisition gives AstraZeneca access to fish oil product Epanova, currently in PhIII (NDA filing expected mid 2013) for the treatment of severe hypertriglyceridemia.

07-22 2015   Pages: 3

PFIZER – MERCK alliance for Ertugliflozin – Not a better partner than Merck

US$ 90

Merck-Pfizer deal for SGLT2 inhibitor – Ertugliflozin is positive and we see Merck as an ideal partner. The fixed dose combination of Ertugliflozin and Januvia should allow Ertugliflozin a head start in an otherwise competitive market.

07-22 2015   Pages: 2

ASTELLAS, ZERIA – Acofide: Superior Enough To Create a Niche and Stand Differentiated Amongst the Generic Functional Dyspepsia Market

US$ 90

Astellas/Zeria in March received approval of Acofide (Acotiamide, Acetylcholine esterase inhibitor, PhIII EU/PhII US) for treatment of Functional dyspepsia (FD) diagnosed by ROME III criteria in Japan. As the market of FD is genericized and FD is not recognized formally by the Japan Medical Insurance system, to the eye it would appear that Acofide’s JP potential would not be much.

07-22 2015   Pages: 4

Xtandi- The Real Potential and the Astellas Part!

US$ 500

“Xtandi- The Real Potential and the Astellas Part!
Expectations that Xtandi (Enzalutamide, Approved, Prostate Cancer) is going to bring a paradigm shift to treat prostate cancer as an ideal antiandrogen therapy (includes positive expectation from interim analysis of PREVAIL expected at ESMO-13/ early 4Q 2013 study in pre-chemo setting) has recently resulted in a rally in Astellas’ price.

07-21 2015   Pages: 12

ENDOCYTE – Small and Powerful Targeted Therapy!

US$ 140

Endocyte’s (ECYT) SMDC technology platform and drug pipeline caught investor’s attention when Merck paid total $1b + 50/50 profit sharing in US + royalty payment on ex. US to its key drug Vintafolide. ECYT expects a response to the 120-day questions submission by mid year based on which Merck will make a no/go decision on the MAA.

07-21 2015   Pages: 11

ENANTA PHARMA – Debut of a Star- 2nd in the Oral IFN free HCV Drug Race!

US$ 140

Gilead entered the HCV race with the acquisition of Pharmasset in 2011 and ABBV through its alliance with Enanta (ENTA) in 2006. Gilead’s Sofosbuvir (PhIII, PMI) in combination with RBV and GS-5885 (PhIII, NS5A inhibitor) is all set to enter the market by 2014 but ENTA/ABBV’s DAAs (ABT-450, PI/r + ABT-333, PMI + ABT-267, NS5AI) will not be too far behind.

07-21 2015   Pages: 8

MITSUBISHI TANABE , Outperform – Invokana: Nice to Have A Clean Label, Yet A Long Way To Go Before Gaining Full Confidence!

US$ 500

“Invokana clean label thrills many on the street rising hopes that Invokana sales could cross $2.5b+ at peak. However we think that CV issues (dose dependent increase in LDL, CV events observed in first 30 days in CANVAS study), associated genital/UTI infections, compromised efficacy in renally impaired patients and long term safety study requirements by FDA (Table 1), should be seen in conjunction with the ‘clean label’.

07-21 2015   Pages: 9

VERTEX PHARMA – Dependence on Success of its CF Pipeline = Risk

US$ 140

Vertex Pharma’s (VRTX) stock has moved up ~30% in this year mostly based on the positive expectation building on Lumacaftor/KALYDECO (CFTR corrector/ CFTR potentiator, PhIII, homozygous del508 mutation Cystic fibrosis/CF), after it received breakthrough therapy designation from the FDA.

07-21 2015   Pages: 4

RIGEL – SyK Inhibition Not Good Enough – Limited Market Potential!

US$ 140

RIGL/AZN’s Fostamatinib (FosD, syk inhibitor, PhIII) has again disappointed by not demonstrating better or at par efficacy with approved or competing RA drugs. Despite achieving a statistically significant ACR20 improvement at 24 weeks in a PhIII, OSKIRA-I trial, it failed to demonstrate any statistical significance in its second primary endpoint – change from baseline in mTSS (mTSS = radiographic modified total Sharp score).

07-21 2015   Pages: 5

AstraZeneca – On the verge of a breakdown – Respiratory portfolio (Symbicort and Pulmicort) threatened by Generics

US$ 90

he respiratory portfolio of AZN which so far has withstood generics attack, is now giving away. Yesterday’s court ruling invalidating pulmicort respule patent and Teva filing a MAA in Europe for a generic equivalent of Symbicort has really shaken AZN base business. In addition recently Apotex announced invalidation of AZN Crestor patent in the Australia ($350m annual sales in 2012). We revise our 2013 core EPS estimate from $4.7 per share to $4.6 per share.

07-21 2015   Pages: 2
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