Categories

IPCA – Outperform, Momentum Continues

US$ 140

We reiterate our Outperform on Ipca post its Q2 FY13 result that was pretty much in line with our expectations. Y-o-Y EBITDA margin reduced by 197bps on account of (1) a one time reversal of expense in Q2 FY12 (2) high R&D expense and provisioning of US generic fees – totaling to $2m. Adjusting to this, the Y-o-Y EBITDA margin is marginally higher.

07-21 2015   Pages: 7

LUPIN – Market Perform, Margin worry on base business

US$ 140

Lupin’s Q2FY13 result was largely inline with our estimates, however, was below our estimate after adjusting for the low R&D expense. Despite no major change between Q1 and Q2 FY13, the EBITDA margin declined by 170 bps after adjusting to the R&D expense.

07-21 2015   Pages: 7

GILEAD – Life Cycle Management for HIV and HCV Pipeline = Upside

US$ 140

Q12 earnings (Table 1) and revised upward revenue guidance validates Gilead’s (GILD) dominance in the HIV space. With the successful launch of Complera/Eviplera (truvada+edurant, 3Q12 net sales of $99m), Stribild (L in US, R in EU, truvada+ cobicistat+elvitegravir) and expected approval of Elvitebravir

07-21 2015   Pages: 7

ALEXION- Innovative Drugs for Orphan Diseases Focus = Stability!

US$ 140

Alexion (ALXN) products lack any near term competition and patent cliff vs. other biologics. 3Q12 earnings repeatedly showed the growth of Soliris (L, PNH, aHUS) in various geographies.

07-21 2015   Pages: 5

GRIFOLS, IVIG Opportunity in AD – Dark Knight

US$ 140

With a promise of stable growth in the core business, bonus upside from positive data of IVIG in AD, and an attractive risk-reward profile, Grifols SA (GRF) is our preferred choice among three IVIG/Plasma players.

07-21 2015   Pages: 17

CELGENE – CHMP Assessment Report: Negative for 1st-line Use and Maintenance Setting – Not Surprising!

US$ 90

We hope that Celgene’s (CELG) 3Q12 result lift the gloom around news related to further delay (or no approval) of Revlimid in EU for Newly Diagnosed Multiple Myeloma (NDMM) /1st-line and maintenance setting. No ODAC panel meeting (earlier scheduled for Nov.

07-21 2015   Pages: 3

Merck – AICURIS: Letermovir can be a meaningful contributor

US$ 90

MRK collaborative agreement with Aicuris (spin-off from Bayer) gets them an interesting Phase 3 anti-infective orphan drug asset – Letermovir (Phase3, Quinazoline). for the treatment and prevention of Human Cytomegalovirus (HCMV) infection in bone marrow transplant recipients. There are 10,000 eligible patients and hence the market potential for this orphan drug would largely depend on the price that MRK can set..

07-21 2015   Pages: 3

Merck – Increase our TP from $45 to $50

US$ 140

We maintain our outperform rating on MRK and increase our Price target from $45 to $50, as we make the following changes in our model. Increased peak sales forecast for MRK’s DPP-IV franchise (including sales for once weekly DPP-IV inhibitor – MK3102) from $9billion to $13 billion.

07-21 2015   Pages: 5

Risk – Reward of Developing a Herceptin Biosimilar – A Thorough Assessment

US$ 2000

“Herceptin exclusivity is expiring in major geographies and many Biosimilar players (both experienced and new entrant) are looking to have a share of this potential $6billion pie. Herceptin sales are critical to Roche as it comprise about 15% of its cumulative Pharma sales.

07-21 2015   Pages: 70

RANBAXY – Diovan exclusivity – safely “parked” by Ranbaxy

US$ 90

“Ranbaxy has so far not been able to launch generic Diovan (valsartan) in the US despite the scheduled date of launching under 180-day exclusivity having already passed.

07-21 2015   Pages: 3
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